Jeb Bush's Florida Model and Florida "leaders" have produced America's worst state education system for generation. Weaponize that fact, politically, relentlessly, to change it.
Billy, can you share where those NAEP growth per grade calculations are from? On the NAEP website, it shows Florida as about average in 8th grade reading in 2009, and about average in 8th grade reading in 2015. If Floridian children are only making .7 grades' worth of growth per year, you would think that by 8th grade they would be we behind the rest of the country.... How would you account for the fact that we aren't? Is it mainly an artifact of mass retention in third grade, so most of our students are taking an extra year to get to 8th grade? (A quick Google search of 'Florida third grade retention rate' didn't give me anything to indicate if that rate is large enough to have this much of an effect).
If scores were truly "good" in third grade, and "read-to-learn" was more than a slogan, that pattern would be opposite. Also, keep in mind that Florida's large voucher program keeps a bunch of kids out of testing at any give time who are not likely to do well on testing, statistically,
Thanks -- that took me to that I was looking for: the study by Prof. Reardon that originated that map: https://cepa.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/wp17-12-v201712.pdf But something still doesn't seem right... If Florida is making only .7 grades worth of progress each year (the least overall in the country, our 8th graders should be well behind the rest of those in the USA, but the NAEP website shows Florida's 8th graders right in the middle of the pack. Likewise, Tennessee's students look, according to this map, like they make well over a single grade's worth of progress every year, but they are also right in the middle of the pack by 8th grade....
I'm mainly trying to think about how to respond to somebody who looks at this data and comes back with the response, "You know, the NAEP website says that Florida's test scores for 8th graders are on par with the rest of the country, so it seems like things aren't as bad as you say."
I think you are confusing growth with proficiency -- and perhaps NAEP and state tests. Florida kid's proficiency is very high according to the NAEP in 4th grade. By 8th grade it has gone far backward to average, at best. By end of high school, it's very poor. On the NAEP proficiency exam. From a growth perspective, if you start at the high and end low, that means you are not getting a years worth of growth. And that's what the state tests show. I personally care about how my kid develops, not how he scores at 8 or 9 years old. But the burden of proof is on Florida to explain this. It is the state producing it. And it ignores this critique completely -- which tells me it is very very
Say the 3rd grade FSA puts you at 3rd grade 6th month; if the 10 grade FSA put same kid at 9th grade 5th month, you have not had a years worth of growth over your career, even thought you started ahead of the game on numbers.
Billy, can you share where those NAEP growth per grade calculations are from? On the NAEP website, it shows Florida as about average in 8th grade reading in 2009, and about average in 8th grade reading in 2015. If Floridian children are only making .7 grades' worth of growth per year, you would think that by 8th grade they would be we behind the rest of the country.... How would you account for the fact that we aren't? Is it mainly an artifact of mass retention in third grade, so most of our students are taking an extra year to get to 8th grade? (A quick Google search of 'Florida third grade retention rate' didn't give me anything to indicate if that rate is large enough to have this much of an effect).
It's in the very first link I shared, right at the start. Here again. Florida rigs the NAEP to be very high in 4th grade, collapses to average by 8th grade and awful by end of high school. https://billytownsend.substack.com/p/floridas-perpetual-naep-collapse-is-americas-most-important-education-story-thats-why-no-one-including-the-naep-will-tell-it
If scores were truly "good" in third grade, and "read-to-learn" was more than a slogan, that pattern would be opposite. Also, keep in mind that Florida's large voucher program keeps a bunch of kids out of testing at any give time who are not likely to do well on testing, statistically,
sorry, 4th grade.
Thanks -- that took me to that I was looking for: the study by Prof. Reardon that originated that map: https://cepa.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/wp17-12-v201712.pdf But something still doesn't seem right... If Florida is making only .7 grades worth of progress each year (the least overall in the country, our 8th graders should be well behind the rest of those in the USA, but the NAEP website shows Florida's 8th graders right in the middle of the pack. Likewise, Tennessee's students look, according to this map, like they make well over a single grade's worth of progress every year, but they are also right in the middle of the pack by 8th grade....
I'm mainly trying to think about how to respond to somebody who looks at this data and comes back with the response, "You know, the NAEP website says that Florida's test scores for 8th graders are on par with the rest of the country, so it seems like things aren't as bad as you say."
I think you are confusing growth with proficiency -- and perhaps NAEP and state tests. Florida kid's proficiency is very high according to the NAEP in 4th grade. By 8th grade it has gone far backward to average, at best. By end of high school, it's very poor. On the NAEP proficiency exam. From a growth perspective, if you start at the high and end low, that means you are not getting a years worth of growth. And that's what the state tests show. I personally care about how my kid develops, not how he scores at 8 or 9 years old. But the burden of proof is on Florida to explain this. It is the state producing it. And it ignores this critique completely -- which tells me it is very very
valid.
Backward regression from stand out to average to suck is a bad arc.
Say the 3rd grade FSA puts you at 3rd grade 6th month; if the 10 grade FSA put same kid at 9th grade 5th month, you have not had a years worth of growth over your career, even thought you started ahead of the game on numbers.